The Solar Energy Industries Association reports more than 100,000 rooftop solar projects were completed in 2014; that number is expected to double this year and double again next year.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that by 2016 utility-scale solar projects will be competitive for a majority of the world and $3.7 trillion will be invested in solar projects between now and 2040. That's a lot of cells.
Further, says Bloomberg Business: "The biggest solar revolution will take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar even more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems."
Now, that's pretty heady stuff. What's driving such massive change? Two things, of course: The prices of solar projects have been cratering, and their efficiencies have been improving dramatically. And what's interesting about the predictions cited is they don't mention tax and utility-provided incentives, which, so far, have been driving the solar industry.
The landscape is changing quickly. Roofing material manufacturers, who have largely remained on the sidelines, are ramping up their research and development efforts. Many roofing contractors, who have preferred to let rooftop solar system installations be performed by solar integrators and others, are re-examining their strategic positioning. And the solar industry itself is looking to the roofing industry to help address some of its biggest concerns, such as wind- and fire-related issues.
It's time for the roofing industry to re-engage and get serious about the transformational possibilities of rooftop solar projects. Smart contractors can start by getting certified through the Certified Solar Roofing Professional™ program developed by NRCA and Roof Integrated Solar Energy™ Inc. They also can identify partners to work with—whether those partners are material manufacturers, electrical contractors, solar integrators or all of the above. And they can pay attention to the dramatic changes occurring in the market every day.
The question, it seems to me, no longer is whether the rooftop solar sector will be viable. The question is: Who will manage it? It's time for the roofing industry to step up.
Bill Good is NRCA's CEO.
